The Revolution Will Not Be YouTubed :Zoopolitik

Tuesday, 24 February 2009

Netanyahu on a Dare

by Harry Haller at 8:09 pm | Be the first

Earlier today a friend sent a link to Juan Cole’s “Netanyahu: Train Wreck for Israel, Middle East; Looming Disaster for United States,” daring me to publish a link to the story and all the links Cole provided.

Republishing the links is redundant; it is easy enough to follow them on Informed Comment. I’m not sure I endorse all of them. When it comes to the Middle East, there is plenty of blame to spread around. While I am deeply concerned that the Palestinians are not marginalized, displaced from their homes, or murdered, I also care that Israelis live at peace, secure in a two-state world. There are impediments to such a vision on both sides of the conflict, and I am critical of any solution lacking such a balance.

Still, it is difficult to muster sympathy for the leader of any nation who believes he can “harness” the United States or the will of its people. I, for one, have not read anything in the United States Constitution mentioning our subservient position as a satellite of Netanyahu’s Israel.

Irony of the Day: No Nationalization

by Harry Haller at 3:51 pm | Be the first

Like a decrepit robber baron on a Viagra mainline, the market sprung up today after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reassured investors that the government would not nationalize banks. Bank of America stock sported an 18 percent erection, and the Dow as a whole was up 2 percent at 2:30 today.

At almost the same time bank analysts and industry insiders predicted the rate of U.S. bank failures would increase more than four-fold this year, with FDIC spokesman Andrew Gray announcing, “The FDIC has clearly stated that we expect an increase in our resolution activity as we work through this economic cycle.”

RBC Capital Markets’ predictions are grimmer: They believe more than 1,000 banks — or one in eight lenders — may fail in the next three to five years, a figure far greater than the more conservative posited by bank analysts.

Reuters notes, “Declaring a bank failure sooner rather than later often minimizes taxpayer costs.”

Hmm. I suppose the rule only applies if your name isn’t Citigroup or Bank of America. In those cases, taxpayers be damned.

I’m a little late to Paul Krugman’s latest op-ed for The New York Times, but it bears reading: “Banking on the Brink.” I have no reason to think he might be, but I’m hoping he is wrong.

Health Reform Key to Fiscal Well-Being

by Harry Haller at 1:49 pm | Be the first

Ezra Klein has a bit of advice for progressives fretting over today’s “White House Fiscal Summit”: Don’t sweat it. Of all the items on the table in the discussions, entitlement reform is conspicuously missing.

Its absence is the product of a quiet but powerful change in thinking that has taken place in the offices of elite Washington and, now, the halls of the White House. Where a decade ago the looming fiscal threat of entitlement spending led economists and budget wonks to wear out their worry beads, today a more subtle understanding of our fiscal future dominates. In this telling, there’s no such program as SocialSecurityandMedicareandMedicaid. There’s Social Security, which has modest long-term liabilities and needs little, if any, help. And then there’s health-care reform. “That,” says Henry Aaron, a senior economist at the Brookings Institution, “is the big kahuna.”

How this happened depends on whom you talk to. Dean Baker, an economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, points to the 2005 Social Security privatization fight. “A lot of people were suddenly out there arguing that there’s no crisis and we don’t need to do anything on Social Security,” he says. That forced left-of-center wonks who’d not thought much about the crisis to confront the numbers or, more precisely, the graphs. “We’ve done a graphic that shows what deficits look like in every country with longer life expectancies than us and what the deficit looks like going 70 years with the same per-capita health-care costs of that country.”

The ensuing graph — consider it our chart-of-the-day — has the United States budget soaring to 55 percent of GDP with out-of-control health care costs, while reform brings it to slightly more than 5 percent. The clincher? In countries with government subsidized healthcare, including Canada, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, GDP is greater than the deficit.

As a slide in OMB director Robert Orszag’s arsenal shows, Social Security isn’t the issue; the cost of Medicare and Medicaid is — and only because health care costs are spiraling out of control.

Klein sums up: In Obama’s Washington, Fiscal responsibility means health reform.

Sunday, 22 February 2009

Is the Nation in Denial?

by Harry Haller at 2:02 pm | 1 Yowl

It came as no surprise when an editorial in The New York Times called for the nationalization of institutions like Citigroup and Bank of America. One might expect the journal erroneously considered a “lefty” newspaper by those on the right to endorse the measure.

But when Republicans like Lindsey Graham and John McCain start slipping the N-word into conversation, it’s time to face uncomfortable facts. As Graham put it, “I would argue that we cannot be ideologically a little bit pregnant. It doesn’t matter what you call it, but we can’t keep on funding these zombie banks. That’s what the Japanese did.”

Now that the so-called “high priest of lassier-faire capitalism,” Alan Greenspan, admits nationalization is in order (“It may be necessary to temporarily nationalize some banks in order to facilitate a swift and orderly restructuring,” Greenspan said. “I understand that once in a hundred years this is what you do.”), one wonders why President Barack Obama’s administration is slow to pick up the tempo.

In his regular op-ed column for The New York Times, Frank Rich suggests a reason: We don’t want to know the truth.

The Obama White House may come up with euphemisms for nationalization (temporary receivership, anyone?). But whatever it’s called, what will it mean? The reason why the White House has been punting on the new installment of the bank rescue is not that the much-maligned Treasury secretary, Timothy Geithner, is incapable of getting his act together. What’s slowing the works are the huge political questions at stake, many of them with consequences potentially as toxic as the banks’ assets.

Will Obama concede aloud that some of our “too big to fail” banks have, in essence, already failed? If so, what will he do about it? What will it cost? And, most important, who will pay? No one knows the sum of the American banks’ losses, but the economist Nouriel Roubini, who has gotten much right about this crash, puts it at $1.8 trillion. That doesn’t count any defaults still to come on what had been considered “good” mortgages and myriad other debt, whether from auto loans or credit cards.

When Obama sought support for his stimulus package, he appealed to Republicans to put away partisan politics and do what was good for the nation: none answered the call. I would suggest it is time for Obama to follow his own advice, forget what is politically expedient, and nationalize toxic banks.

Whale Watching Profit Spurs Recklessness

by Harry Haller at 10:51 am | Be the first

Humpback whale, breaching, Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary

Image via Wikipedia

Via NatHistoryWhale at the Museum of Natural History comes a story in the Sri Lanka Sunday Times “Plus” section entitled, “What are we doing to these gentle mammals of the sea?” I couldn’t help thinking, as I read the account of a stampeded baleen whale robbed of a complete breath, of waterboarding:

On the first day, we found a baleen whale being completely surrounded by whale watch boats and being chased at high speed every time it surfaced to breathe. There were a total of five whale watch boats around it of which only one (the large boat operated by the Ceylon Fisheries Harbour Cooperation in collaboration with Walkers Tours) was operating in a professional and correct manner that did not unduly stress the whale and also provided safety for the whale watchers on board. Their caution and correct conduct should be commended and held up as an example of how to do it right. All the other commercial whale watch boats, regardless of their size and who was operating them, were harassing the whale throughout this encounter making it change its natural behaviour due to the stress they were causing it. Large baleen whales usually surface after a dive and blow slowly and deliberately at the surface while they rest and exhale.

They blow many times to replenish much of the air in their lungs to dive again. Once they have done this they will slowly dive once more to feed. Unfortunately the whale watch boats went charging towards the whale every time it surfaced, forcing it to hurriedly take a few breaths and re-submerge before it was ready for another dive. By doing this the boats were causing much physical stress to the animal while also making sure that the whale watchers who pay a large sum for these expeditions got only fleeting views of the whale. If like the large CFHC vessel all the boats just lower their speed and idle at a safe distance it is possible to watch these animals for a long time as they will spend more time at the surface affording whale watchers long and memorable experiences and many good photo opportunities.

Later in the story a blue whale and her calf are harassed as they feed. It left me wondering how news accounts would read if the mother, fearing for the well-being of her child, turned and charged the boat, spilling its occupants into the ocean. I’m willing to bet the whale would get the blame and be called a “rogue” or a “renegade.”

As writer Anouk Ilangakoon reminds readers, responsible whale watching might prove a boon to southern Sri Lanka’s economy, but recklessness in the burgeoning industry could stem its growth before it reaches maturity.

Friday, 20 February 2009

Advice to Obama: Bite the Bullet

by Harry Haller at 5:44 pm | Be the first

Apparently Wall Street isn’t buying into the Barack Obama, Timothy Geithner hybrid approach to bank rescue. Here is Reuters’ lead:

Bank of America Corp and Citigroup Inc shares plummeted for the sixth straight day on Friday, hammered by fears the U.S. government could nationalize the banks, wiping out shareholders.

The shares came off their lows after the White House said President Barack Obama favored a privately held banking system, but investor concerns persisted.

The New York Times says reassurances from the White House rallied the markets late in the day:

Wall Street’s fears about a government takeover of major banks eased somewhat on Friday afternoon after the White House reaffirmed its belief in a privately owned banking system.

The Dow climbed back from a 200-point loss but still ended 100 points lower after the Obama administration tried to reassure nervous investors that it wanted to avoid nationalizing troubled banks.

“This administration continues to strongly believe that a privately held banking system is the correct way to go, ensuring that they are regulated sufficiently by this government,” a spokesman for President Obama, Robert Gibbs, said. “That’s been our belief for quite some time, and we continue to have that.”

The Washington Post calls the market’s response “erratic.”

Lurching ups and downs are great for roller coaster enthusiasts, but lousy for investors and the public. The Obama administration should take a stand one way or another and let the resulting storm play out. Uncertainty worries people more than bold action. Personally, I believe it is past time to temporarily nationalize banks, sell off the pieces, and move ahead. Sometimes those who play the market lose their backsides; it’s part of the risk they take to win big.

But regardless of the course of action, the time has come to say “yes, we will” or “no, we won’t” and get on with it. At least then we’ll all know where we stand.

As I used to tell customers when I worked in sales, “Sooner or later you have to decide. You’re either in or out. Stop wasting our time and choose.”

Bush Shoe Thrower Defends His Action

by Harry Haller at 3:55 pm | Be the first

In case you’ve forgotten Muntadar al-Zaidi, the Iraqi journalist who became a hero to Arabs on the street after he hurled his shoes at then-President George W. Bush, he got his day in court on Thursday.

Appearing before judge Abdul Amir al-Rubaie, he defended his behavior, saying Bush was not an “official” guest of prime minister Nouri al-Maliki.

“Guests should knock on the door,” he insisted. “Those who come sneaking in are not guests.”About an hour later the judge postponed the proceeding until March 12 “to seek an opinion from the Iraqi government about whether Bush’s final visit to Baghdad was indeed an ‘official’ one.”

Following his courtroom appearance, Zaidi spoke with reporters and explained what led him to strike out:

During the news conference, Zaidi said, he became enraged as Bush provided an upbeat assessment of the security situation. “I did not know what achievements he was talking about,” Zaidi said. “I was seeing a million martyrs, seas of Iraqi blood, the desecration of mosques, the raping of Iraqi women and the humiliation Iraqis endure every day, every hour. Because I am a journalist, I know all about that.”

Bush smirked “icily” as he spoke, Zaidi said, and flashed a “smile with no spirit.” As the news conference was winding down and the two heads of state were preparing to dine together, Zaidi said he was overtaken by rage.

“In that moment, I only saw Bush,” he said. “I was feeling the blood of innocent people flow under my feet as he was smiling. I felt that he is the killer of my people, and I am one of those people. I became emotional because he’s responsible for what is going on in Iraq, so I hit him with my shoe.”

The journalist’s initial account of the incident was taken under duress, as he received electric shocks, he said.

A crowd of Iraqis applauded as Zaidi was taken from the hearing and returned to jail.

A Russian History Lesson

by Harry Haller at 1:58 pm | Be the first

Image via Wikipedia

In 1812 Napoleon stormed Russia with one of the largest and most powerful armies on earth. The Russians drew him in, burning their crops ahead of them. Then they cut off French supply lines and counterattacked. My old western civilization text calls it “Napoleon’s invasion”; the Russians refer to it as the “Patriotic War.” Incidentally, they won.

Fast-forward to the 1940s, World War II, and the German blitz of the Soviet Union. Stalin drew Hitler deeper and deeper into inhospitable territory, cut off the invader’s supply lines, and the Reich fell. Russians refer to this victory as the “Great Patriotic War.”

Perhaps military history is the reason — as the United States is shoring up troop strength in Afghanistan — Defense Secretary Robert Gates is anxious to strike a deal with the government of Kyrgyzstan hours after the Kyrgyz Parliament terminated a lease on a critical air base and ordered American troops out of the country in six months. The base is a key supply nucleus for soldiers in Afghanistan.

A paragraph in The Washington Post report makes me think the Russians might be trying to school Gates:

Kyrgyzstan’s president announced the U.S. ouster from Manas shortly after Moscow promised $2.1 billion in loans and aid to the tiny, impoverished Central Asian country. Russia insists that it did not influence the decision.

It looks to me like the final American price tag — at a time of economic crisis — will be much higher than $2.1 billion. Anyone care to hazard a guess?

Stanford Eludes Reporters — Again

by Harry Haller at 12:11 pm | Be the first

Yesterday we noticed when the FBI served Texas financier Allen Stanford papers from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission after accusing him of defrauding 50,000 customers around the world in a multibillion-dollar investment scheme.

Today, according to Reuters, he’s missing again. While television crews mounted a vigil at the home of the woman “reputed to be a girlfriend,” Stanford apparently slipped the noose.

What I’d like to know is where one hides out if he is Allan Stanford, with governments up and down the Western Hemisphere and an army of investors at odds with him. One thing is certain: He likely won’t be welcome in Antigua.

(By the way, I agree with Felix Salmon in the link below: Why wasn’t the man arrested yesterday?)

Thursday, 19 February 2009

The Hiatus Roundup

by Harry Haller at 6:13 pm | Be the first

Getting back in the swing is tough: perhaps a roundup of the stories we’re following is in order:

Allen Stanford has been found in the United States, according to Reuters. The FBI has served civil papers on the Texas billionaire who has been accused of “massive fraud” by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. The “flamboyant, mustachioed financier” is under investigation in the U.S., in five Latin American countries, including Venezuela and Ecuador, and in Britain. I’m beginning to wonder whether the whole industry is one giant Ponzi scheme and Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Barack Obama took his first trip to outside the United States today, meeting with Canada’s prime minister Stephen Harper in Ottawa. The Washington Post characterized Obama’s approach as “cautious,” but the Associated Press was more optimistic, citing a “plan to promote clean energy development” and Harper’s insistence that “threats to the U.S. are threats to his country too.” The New York Times notes former President George W. Bush was “very unpopular” with Canadians and quotes Obama’s emphasis that “leadership depends on strong alliances.”
Kos is lauding Kosmonauts who pegged the 2008 election results. No winner can be declared until Al Franken is seated in Minnesota, which means it might be a cold day in hell before “mustang dvs” picks up his Macbook prize. “Nulwee” is tickled that Obama and the Department of Justice are going after Swiss bank UBS. Apparently Rush Limbaugh is “roaring” about it. I wonder whether his is one of the names they’ll be naming. Wouldn’t that be grand!
By now we’ve all heard the latest chimpanzee news. A rampaging 200-pound ape that had appeared in Old Navy and Coca-Cola commercials was shot to death by a police officer after mauling a woman in Connecticut. The press quickly dubbed him “Furious George,” and the New York Post exploited the tragedy to further its racist, anti-Obama agenda. Even Scientific American jumped into the fray, asking “Why would a chimpanzee attack a human?” I wondered what all the fuss was about, when the likelihood that I’ll be attacked by a non-human Great Ape is slim — unless I take a trip to Africa or get an unexpected visit from Jane Goodall. But I found myself wondering, when a friend sent a link to a BBC News video about family sharing its home with a fox, how long it would be before the vixen maimed a child and had to be put down. Beautiful animal, but in the wrong place. Hint: Wild things are meant to be wild.
No matter how I slice it, the National Emergency Centers Act (HR 645) makes me nervous, not because it smells of a concentration camp, but because it makes me wonder what sort of crisis the government is anticipating.
Juan Cole reminds me that the Israeli invasion of Gaza isn’t over for many Palestinian children.
Maybe hungry Alaskans will think twice before reelecting Sarah Palin.
What’s a Pentagon to do when Americans will not enlist and support its discretionary wars? Hire immigrants. (Maybe they should recruit a few Mexican drug lords and their private armies. Apparently they have a heck of a success rate.)
If the commodity were milk instead of gasoline, we’d call it price-gouging.
Miep Gies, who hid Anne Frank and her family, turned 100 on Sunday.

With that, I’m caught up. Hopefully tomorrow our regularly scheduled Weblogging will resume.

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